libya and the fall of colonel muammar gaddafi peak oil related 2011?

was libya and the fall of colonel muammar gaddafi peak oil related?

Peak Oil

Unbeknownst to much of the population, is that the world has reached (or very soon will reach) Peak Oil. Slowly but surely, the mainstream media is acknowledging this frightening issue.

"We've embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil."
Mike Bowlin, Chairman and CEO, ARCO, (1999)

"Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist."
Kenneth Boulding (circa 1980)

"The U.S. has some unbelievable energy problems." "The world cannot live without access to energy." "If supply ever becomes even 1% less than demand, a crisis is triggered." "If energy supply ever stops, the economy ends."
Matthew Simmons, Investment Banker, Member: V.P. Cheney’s 2001 Energy Task Force

"It is evident that the fortunes of the world's human population, for better or for worse, are inextricably interrelated with the use that is made of energy resources."
M. King Hubbert (1969) Energy Visionary

"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel."
Saudi saying

World oil and gas 'running out': CNN recently reported, the world's oil reserves are up to 80 percent less than predicted. Production levels will peak in about 10 years' time. At that point prices for petrol and other fuels will reach disastrous levels.

Bottom of the barrel: The world is running out of oil - so why do politicians refuse to talk about it?: The Guardian UK reports: “The oil industry is buzzing. On Thursday, the government approved the development of the biggest deposit discovered in British territory for at least 10 years. Everywhere we are told that this is a "huge" find, which dispels the idea that North Sea oil is in terminal decline. You begin to recognise how serious the human predicament has become when you discover that this "huge" new field will supply the world with oil for five and a quarter days.

Every generation has its taboo, and ours is this: that the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don't talk about it because we cannot imagine it. This is a civilisation in denial.”

Shell says reserves over-estimated: In a statement, the world's third biggest oil company in terms of production said it would trim its proved oil and gas reserves by a fifth, down to 15.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent from 19.5 billion boe estimated at December 2002. Based on current production, Shell's move cuts its reserve life to 10.6 years from 13.4 years. Shell also warned that it will replace only 70%-90% of its 2003 oil and gas with new finds.

Exxon-Mobil: “Our industry can certainly be proud of its past achievements. Yet the challenges we will face in the coming years will be every bit as great as those encountered in the past, due in part to ever-increasing global energy use.

For example, we estimate that world oil and gas production from existing fields is declining at an average rate of about 4 to 6 percent a year. To meet projected demand in 2015, the industry will have to add about 100 million oil-equivalent barrels a day of new production. That’s equal to about 80 percent of today’s production level. In other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today. In addition, the cost associated with providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably more than what industry is now spending.

Equally daunting is the fact that many of the most promising prospects are far from major markets — some in regions that lack even basic infrastructure. Others are in extreme climates, such as the Arctic, that present extraordinary technical challenges."

Major challenges ahead

We in ASPO (The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas) know that it is harder to find oil then gas, but if we accept that it might be equally easy I can make the following conclusion:

Today we have a daily production of 75 million barrels per day. If we in 2015 need 80 percent of this as new production we must open new oilfields that can give 60 million barrels per day. To understand how impossible this is I like to make a comparison with the top production of 6 million barrels per day in the North Sea. The question is where can we find 10 new regions of the size of the North Sea? Maybe can the production in Iraq with enormous investments increase with 6 million barrels per day.

I think that it would be a miracle if the rest of the countries in the Middle East can increase the production with 6 million barrels per day. That the rest of the world can find over 40 million barrels of new production is just a dream.

Everything you touch, any mode of transportation you take, all the food you eat has been provided with the benefit of this most energy-rich fuel source. No other fuel source has such a high Energy Return on Energy Invested ratio (EROEI). Our society has been built on this fuel source - one that is finite.

Obviously, it would run out sometime. That time is now - within our lifetime.

With current consumption rates, oil reserves will be depleted in 25 to 30 years, yet demand is increasing. The timeline is ever declining.

There is no equivalent energy replacement - this is not a debatable issue, this is an unpleasant fact.

Right now, there is a deluge of stories on the wonders of hydrogen. Yet, this is another area of great confusion. Hydrogen is not a primary source of energy. For a Hydrogen Era to occur you need an abundance of natural gas, or you need to create a great deal of new power plants using coal and nuclear power. As well, all these energy 'sources' require fossil fuels for extraction, construction of buildings and equipment, transportation of materials. EVERYTHING is tied to hydrocarbons.

The discovery of fossil fuels, the greatest energy subsidy ever known enabled the transformation of civilization itself into a form never before seen: industrialism.

Richard Heinberg writes in, The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies:

"Marion King Hubbert first announced in 1949, that the fossil-fuel era would prove to be very brief.

The life of industrial civilization will be a “horridly short” pulse lasting roughly 100 years (from 1930 to 2030), with its high point corresponding to the peak of global per-capita energy use - which occurred in 1979.

Hubbert immediately grasped the vast economic and social implications of this information. He understood the role of fossil fuels in the creation of the modern industrial world, and thus foresaw the wrenching transition that would likely occur following the peak in global extraction rates. In lectures and articles, starting in the 1950s, Hubbert outlined how society needed to change in order to prepare for a post-petroleum regime.

Hubbert was quoted as saying that we are in a “crisis in the evolution of human society.” You can only use oil once.

L.F. Ivanhoe is the founder of the M. King Hubbert Centre for Petroleum Supply Studies. Ivanhoe calls Hubbert’s followers “Casandras,” after the mythological Trojan princess who could foretell the future but was doomed never to be believed.

“This is within the lifetimes of most people now alive. This foreseeable energy crisis will affect everyone on earth.”

...

This period of overwhelming transformative change has sometimes been called the “Petroleum Era” or the “Industrial Age, “ but, in view of its relative brevity, it may be more appropriate to call in the “Petroleum Interval” or the “Industrial Bubble.”

...

Because they have no solution, politicians on both sides will probably go to absurd lengths to obscure or mystify the real causes of the changes engulfing society.

If the Right gains the upper hand, the result will probably be the undermining of civil liberties; the scape-goating of leftists, minorities and foreigners; and the expansion of military and police powers.

If the Left gains the upper hand, the result might be a kind of modern peasant revolt, in which the wealthy would be demonized and punished. However, neither political response will necessarily do much to solve the underlying problem of energy-resource depletion.

...

The sooner the general public understands the situation industrial societies are in, the less suffering will occur as we make the inevitable but painful transition to a new energy regime.

INTERGENERATIONAL CONFLICT: even if not explicitly told that this is this case, young people will likely intuitively understand that, within the lifetime of the babyboomer generation, over half of the total petroleum reserves of the planet have been used up. Everywhere they will see evidence of the extravagant party their elders have thrown, while for themselves there will be only dregs left over.

With ever fewer economic opportunities available, they may feel an unspeakable resentment toward older people who have frittered away the world’s endowment of natural resources, leaving almost nothing for their children or grandchildren.

...

In the near-term future, secure access to resources will depend not only on the direct control of oil fields and pipelines but also on successful competition with other bidders for available supplies. Eventually, the US will need to curtail European and Japanese access to resources wherever possible. [and too, China]
...
Prospects for increasing food production above the global level of demand are dim - largely due to continued population growth.

Add to this already grim picture the spectre of oil depletion. It is not difficult imagine the likely agricultural consequences of dramatic price hikes for the gasoline or diesel fuel used to run farm machinery or to transport food long distances, or for nitrogen fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides made from oil and natural gas. The agricultural miracle of the 20th century may become the agricultural apocalypse of the 21st.

How many people will post-industrial agriculture be able to support?

This is an extremely important question, but one that is difficult to answer. A safe estimate would be this: as many people as were supported before agriculture was industrialized - that is the population at the beginning of the 20th century, or somewhat fewer than two billion people.

After reviewing the optimistic and the pessimistic arguments, at the end of the day we are still left with something like two billion as an educated guess for planet Earth’s sustainable, long-term, post-petroleum carrying capacity for humans.

This poses a serious problem, since there are currently over six billion of us and our numbers are still growing.

...

The picture drawn is a profoundly disturbing one. It depicts a century of impending famine, disease, economic collapse, despotism, and resource wars. The reader may be wondering: Is this author deliberately exaggerating the perils ahead in order to make a point? Or is he simply a gloomy and depressed individual projecting his neuroses onto the world?

The future projections represent the likely outcomes of present trends. The emotional responses run the gamut from shock, denial, despair, and rage to eventual acceptance.

The fact remains: as long as we trade on false hopes, we only dig deeper the hole we’re already in. We have arrived at a point where global societal collapse - meaning a reversion to a lower level of complexity - is likely, and perhaps certain, over the next few decades.

The process of getting from here to there is likely to be horrendously difficult, and the desirability of the outcome will depend to a very high degree on actions taken now.

It has been a fabulous party.

Shall we acknowledge that the party is over, clean up after ourselves, and make way for those who will come after us?"

excerpt from: Special Report Ontario Energy Crisis: Analysis - Energy Supply Task Force Report - the problems that beset Ontario are the same worldwide - this analysis applies to all countries

Petro-chemical products touch every aspect of our lives - the car we drive (gasoline, interior mouldings, exterior coatings), clothing, stereo and computer housing, paint on the walls of our houses and offices, the plastic packaging used for food, the shampoo bottle in the shower. The list is endless.

Chemicals used for manufacturing processes and fertilizers will become scarce and expensive.

This energy crisis affects all aspects of government, not just the Ministry of Energy.

Transportation - Fuels cells for automobiles are not as viable as the promoters would like us to think. If by a miracle, these cells were viable and the hundreds of thousands of cars and trucks could be retrofitted for fuel cells, where would the energy come from to fill these?

The Task Force weakly suggested, "...the use of off-peak power to produce hydrogen for use in fuel cells...” An entire hydrogen energy infrastructure would require investments of large amounts of money and energy.

Most importantly, the process of hydrogen production always uses more energy than the resulting hydrogen will yield. The Second Law of Thermodynamics insures that hydrogen will be a net-energy loser every time since some usable energy is lost whenever it is transformed (from hydrogen to electricity, electricity to hydrogen, etc.).

Where will the petroleum products come from to build and maintain roads? Asphalt incorporates large quantities of oil. Airlines use copious amounts high-grade kerosene refined from oil. Transportation will change dramatically.

Agriculture - Where will the chemicals come from for fertilizer production? The great agricultural miracle of the 20th century dates back to nitrogen for fertilizer and increasing food crops. Dale Allen Pfieffer has already documented that in the US, more and more fossil fuels are used to produce less and less food. Even with fertilizer, modern agricultural methods will ensure Ontario food production will decline.

The success of the Cuban 'anti-model' of agriculture (they had to deal with the sudden drop of Soviet oil supplies) offers direction for Ontario agricultural policy.

(Supermarkets fully stocked with imported produce will be a thing of the past. Prices will be high.)

Housing - Will we continue to build what are really unnecessarily large homes, which we heat in the winter and then cool down in the summer? Is it necessary to keep building these large new big box retail outlets with high ceilings and extensive lighting?

Both these activities must stop! By choice and planning now or by necessity and haphazard approach later. Building codes must reflect this new reality.

Healthcare - Hospitals are virtual 24/7 cities. They require enormous amounts of reliable energy. There is a growing need for homes for the aged. They will need reliable energy.

Traveling and Tourism - There will be less foreign tourists, as traveling will become expensive. In summer, the weekly trip to the cottage will be costly and best saved for the annual holiday. Gone will be the days of spending the day 'out in the boat'.

Economic activity will decline. Jobs will be lost.

ALL government policy must look to the trends of over 25 years not 10. Without choice, the Ontario way of life IS negotiable. Will we negotiate from strength or from weakness?

Clearly, the issue at hand is how to best manage the decline of our society to one that is simpler and less complex.

Richard Heinberg writes in The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, "Virtually all of the authors who have contributed to the literature on sustainability tell us that, in order for a transition to a lower-complexity and lower-throughput society to occur without a chaotic collapse, humanity will have to take a systemic approach to resource management and population reduction.

It is the scale of the problems that beset us now that is unique. The steep expansion in scale of the human population size and the consumption of resources that has characterized modern societies is almost entirely due to industrialism and the use of fossil fuels. And many of the largest problems we are to likely encounter in this century will be due to the depletion of those fuels."

(The depletion of those fuels and the realization of the consequences has for quite sometime been the driving force behind geo-political events - yes, it is all about oil.)

"We must face the prospect of changing our basic ways of living. This change will either be made on our own initiative in a planned way, or forced on us with chaos and suffering by the inexorable laws of nature." Jimmy Carter (1976)